They stated: “elizabeth ii is currently ninety two years vintage. Through this internet site , the chances for a 92-12 months-old woman to die within the subsequent year of her existence is 16.06% (as a way to be rounded up to sixteen.1% for simplification). Dividing this possibility evenly amongst all twelve months of the 12 months (which isn’t always the way it works, however it is all that we have to burst off of), each day of her 92nd yr, the queen has approximately a 0.04411% chance of demise on any given day.
“now, to be able to satisfy beefy_cabbage ‘s mythical prediction, the queen could need to no longer die earlier than january fifth, after which die on that day. There are nine days before the 5th (twenty seventh-4th), so the opportunity finally ends up being:
“(100%-zero.04411%) * zero.04411% (the primary term representing the nine days she would survive and the second term representing the day she might die).
“by means of this expression, the queen has a zero.04393% threat of loss of life on january fifth, 2019. This is about a 1 in 2276 hazard. So it’s quite not going (but truly nevertheless inside the realm of opportunity!) that she’ll die then. God save the queen.”